Showing posts with label peak oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peak oil. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Strategy for National Transition













Big Question – How does Transition Towns NZ develop a strategy for National Transition?


When big picture questions arise in conversation as this one did with Colleague Laurence the other day I find it hard to resist their challenge.

This question is a tremendously broad canvas and begs several major assumptions:
  1. it assumes that a strategy for national transition is desirable.
  2. it assumes that a strategy for national transition is attainable.
  3. it assumes that Transition Towns have more than two pennies worth to offer.
  4. it assumes that a voluntary organisation with few paid staff can make a contribution to the enormous task of reorganisation of an entire nation that would in the normal course of events be the responsibility of a large well educated well funded public service.
  5. it assumes that those in charge will actually be interested.
Assuming that the answer to the above is generally in the positive we then face the tricky task of defining terms so that the problem can be framed and measures set up so that we might know whether we are proceeding in roughly the right direction. If we can do this and satisfy ourselves that the underlying assumptions are broadly acceptable - then we might have an approach that we can tease out parameters and drill down to the sub-questions below. This approach could of course be caricatured as a classic left-brain, top-down, hierarchical-male strategy, which does not mean it is any better or worse than any other approach, it just is one approach and perhaps the most obvious.

Another approach is to imagine that the whole country has already made a transition to a lower energy future and to paint a picture of what it looks like and how the journey to it was made. This back-cast vision might be a fairly patchy rendering; some bits highly detailed and coloured, other bits barely sketched at all. Like painting a picture without any pencilled outlines this approach requires a good understanding of one’s subject, its structure, details and surface features for it to be more than a wishful fantasy. The more knowledge that can be brought to bear - other countries, towns or cities that have made significant shifts towards resilience, then the more the vision is a projection which is anchored with real world understanding.

A third option might be to develop a strategy by working in a painterly fashion perhaps starting with a splash of paint or a found object, perhaps an old factory or vacant lot and using it as the stimulus to build a picture of the future. A serendipitous “abstract for art sake” approach whilst unusual and strangerous could certainly liberate thinking and perhaps tumble out some good ideas that could not be generated any other way.

Prophetic visions have a long and credible history in many cultures which should not be over-looked. Whether prophetic insights are received as a result of spiritual inspiration or the neuro-chemistry of a sensitive individual, (or a combination of both), the visions of gifted prophets have provided guidance for communities struggling to travel from present certainties into uncertain futures. Although the format and content is a little different from a white discussion paper, the raw power of the spoken word can perhaps do immeasurably more than kilograms of carefully weighted discourse. If ever there was a time when so many on the planet face certain tribulation, it will be when oil production peaks and declines along with most every other resource. The need for outside help will become ever more apparent.

My favourite dessert is a sherry trifle – at least it will do for the moment. A combination of sponge, jelly, custard, whipped cream, slices of strawberries & peaches all laced liberally with a rich fortified wine. To see a beautifully formed trifle blended, chilled, set and decorated in its great crystal bowl is to see a vision indeed. Perhaps the best approach is to cook up solutions in every corner of the kitchen and bring them together for a grand tasting and debate. Following which we might (if we are not overfed) concoct a hearty vision of National Transition from some simple well blended ingredients.

Ladies and gentlemen – a penny for your thoughts please.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

The Affects of Peak Oil on Architecture

The following is part of a talk given to Western Branch NZIA which met at Whanganui River Institute, 27 June 2008.

First Point - Architecture pre-existed the use of cheap fossil fuels, but it was a little different then.

Secondly – There are many definitions of an Architect, but one that is useful to the discussion about Peak Oil and resource scarcity is Architects as “concretisers of culture”. Just as bacteria are instrumental in turning carbon rich algal deposits into fossil fuels, Architects are instrumental in fossilising the agendas of those with resources at their disposal.

On the face of it, the advent of PO and reduced flows of energy unfortunately means that there will be fewer resources play with and to plan with. It is almost certain that the communities that Architects recently served will be going through a certain amount of upheaval, and as resources become more expensive new needs will emerge and old ones will disappear. It is highly probable that resources will be refocused on basic needs and agendas will be recast in the light of new and very pressing needs.

Not all of this will be a bad thing. Post-modern deconstruction will be seen as the last gasp of bankrupt ideologues who had no idea what times they were living in. Their architecture is destined to moulder and become an enigma for post-oil generations to marvel at. Decadent lifestyle pornography which architects have been totally complicit with over the past decade is likely to be greatly resented by those who cannot afford basic housing and for their owners will be expensive to maintain and heat. Many examples of what is currently called sustainable design will be seen to be sustainable in name only.

I suspect that there will be a re-evaluation of what architecture is actually about and that the future will have both opportunities and threats. To get a handle on this I have done some armchair analysis to examine the kinds of issues that are likely to raise their heads. I think there will be food for thought for councillors as well as architects.

So how will the advent of Peak Oil work through our world?

It will not be “Business as Usual”

The first obvious affect of reduced volumes/increased demands will be expensive energy. This has started happening. The second affect will be patchy supplies of fuel, which will be equivalent to a chronic heart failure. See below a chart of some of the trends that seem fairly predictable from this side of the decline, but there are sure to be many more:In addition to their knowledge of building design and procurement Architects have some significant skill-sets that are likely to prove valuable:

The ability to see/imagine a project at many different levels of scale consequtively over both space and time.

The ability to generate multiple solutions and to evaluate them for the best fit to the circumstances and situation.

The ability to act as a communication hub in which there are many different players all with interests at stake.

The ability to marry analytical and aesthetic judgements in the best interests of the project – The Art of Compromise.

The ability to think through and resolve complex staging issues arising from the implementation of implementing change on existing situations.

The ability to make decisions under conditions of stress and make fair-ish judgement calls in real time. – Also the ability to reverse those decisions when they are found to be wrong.

The ability to generally maintain the appearance of calm in the face of unbelievable bureaucratic frustration.

These skills are not acquired quickly or easily and are the intangible values upon which our reputation and utility rests. These skills are likely to be in demand during any period of significant change, and it will be interesting to see how well we are able to market our skills and perhaps diversify the role of Architect.

So what should Architects do? Some suggestions to start a discussion:

- design with the future in mind

- understand the times we are living in

- observe the forces in play

- re-think people’s actual needs

- re-think level’s of Architectural services

- advocate long term planning and declaim dubious projects including past ones

- acquire tools to demonstrate value for money

- re-think material use

- re-think design – Keep It Simple Sustainable & Sensible

- passive solutions better/cheaper than fallible active systems.

The great project over the next decades will be to help bring our lumbering hubristic civilization down to a survivable landing. This will involve different mindsets and value-sets from the ones that have held sway and become accustomed to working with. It will not be business as usual but business for the shrewdest, and all business involving resources will be carried out under the greatest scrutiny. The new frugality will focus on basic needs and will view as contemptible profligate waste the kind we currently experience as normal. The future is a mixed. There will be opportunities for both Chaos and Community. If we don’t lead or assist those who do lead by providing workable solutions, the forces of chaos will establish themselves by default, and the opportunities for community will dwindle.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Belief, Denial & Peak Oil

We occupy a meme saturated world, much of it a result of the information explosion that accompanied the ignition of fossil fuels. Denial – the opposite of belief has become an important strategy in preserving a clear head from the pollution of toxic information swilling around us. We all operate within particular resources of time and space and must filter the information that comes our way. Much of this happens without any conscious effort and we navigate our days essentially guided by punishment and reward instincts which have stood us and our ancestors in good stead. We share this guidance system with many in the animal kingdom and for the most part it works exceptionally well. Humans however get a very wide spectrum of information directly from the world and some of this includes information received from others either directly or indirectly through one of the many media of information exchanges.

The ability to transmit information through abstract symbols, verbal and visual languages, and traditions has enabled humans to exploit the world around them and to become biologically successful. Language enabled groups of individuals to become organized to acquire and accumulate knowledge and to pass it on to others. This knowledge included basic facts about the world; [this is what barley looks like], as well as higher forms of knowledge - traditions and values; [this is when and where is it best to plant barley]. Belief in what one’s elders said about material resources had its obvious advantages. This was fine when the information matched the world and was sufficiently detailed to be useful.

However information is not always accurate, up to date or clearly passed on and can be corrupted accidentally or deliberately. Humans also discovered the advantages of with-holding or pitching information intended to deceive those they competed against. So the utility of information needed to be weighed against the disadvantages of mis-information or dis-information. The ability to discern the difference between beneficial, neutral and damaging information is therefore of critical importance for individuals and groups in a competition for resources.

Belief and denial are alternative conclusion points in the process of determining what course of action is best in the circumstances. An element of choice is involved in assessing information and feeling whether it fits with the world one has experienced. (If the information does fit one’s experience there is a greater chance that the information will be believed and where necessary acted upon, including the option to seek further information). Information that conflicts with experience will be pondered, and is more likely to be denied and put to one side. Such mis-matching information may even give cause for concern to the receiver’s relationship with the sender.

Over time we learn to trust certain sources of information more than others, [our best friend telling us we have bad breath is more troublesome than a snide adversary]. Some information is more important than others [you have received an email from realplayer vs. you have received an email from an old flame] and the knowledge is tagged with an emotional marker which indicates its significance. This tagging (or message amplification) has two sub-conscious effects: firstly it makes the event register on our memory; secondly it forces important information through the mental filters that guard our precious mental space – our consciousness. When the news is of life changing significance; [I’m sorry but you have cancer], it can set off a cascade of feelings that quickly overwhelm us. In this situation denial can be recruited as a strategy to mitigate the paralyzing affects of bad news. This is particularly so when the consequences of the bad news are at some point in the future, and we can go on living, avoiding an awful truth.

Denial takes a number of forms and expressions depending on the attitude of the person and the scariness of the issue that confronts them.

The most obvious denial devices are ridicule and “argumendum ad hominem” attacks on the messenger. The denier engages with the issue only long enough to determine that a response to shut down the issue is warranted. This could be driven by an exaggerated feeling of anger or fear and might include physical attack as well as emotional/verbal abuse. Ad hominem attacks need not be overt nor emotional and are highly effective when kept carefully neutral. [“Well they would say that, wouldn’t they!”], is essentially an attack on the messenger strongly implying bias. This shifts the focus from the point at issue to another which the denier is less threatened by. This tactic has been termed replacement, evasion or displacement.

A variant of ad hominem attack is to call into question the perspective of the messenger – in particular whether they are a pessimist or an optimist. Such labeling is a giveaway that an attempt is being made to avoid engagement with the issue. This can be taken a step further by the denier stating that he/she is an optimist, and the messenger by implication must therefore be a pessimist. This switches the focus from the point at issue to one which the denier is probably happier to focus on – himself. If the messenger buys into the counter-argument offered it leaves them struggling on vague subjective territory.

Similar appeals to bias of perspective have been used with devastating effect by those with politically correct agendas who attempt to silence debate on issues because those who oppose them may not be black/gay/female/disabled/whatever. Rhetoric such as “what could you possibly know about such and such because you’re a white anglo-saxon middle-class so and so” is an emotional blunderbuss that should be seen for the contemptible attitude it reveals and perhaps parodied to underline the bankruptcy of the argument.

Inappropriate analogies can be used to refute or accept issues. One classic analogy is that “truth is like an elephant in a darkened room. One person feels the trunk, another the ears, and they all come to different conclusions about what truth is.” It is amazing how many people actually swallow this analogy and fail to consider why truth might be more like a candle that illuminates - than an elephant, (that does what elephants do). Analogies are powerful levers in debates where an element of subjectivity is present, so must be treated with care.

Parallel with elephantine analogies are post-modern arguments which attempt to equate experience with reality. Po-mo “discourses” (as ideas are called in the rapidly fading philosophy of post-modernism), quickly lead one down “disrupted” unsustainable paths into nebulous pseudo-intellectualism. [What we know about the world is “mediated” through our senses, reality is just a construct of the mind, my reality is not your reality etc] ad nauseum. [There is no truth except for the truth that there is no truth, therefore we can all do whatever we want]. One logical extension of this is that Hitler was essentially a good man because he was true to himself. – Really?

Euphemistic language intended to minimize the affects of an issue is another form of denial. Describing civilians killed by bombs as collateral damage, or an aborted foetus as a product of conception are two that readily come to mind. We are deluged by such language whose primary purpose is to frame debates so that a particular mindset is adopted. The framing of issues is a powerful tool of propaganda that is beyond the scope of this short essay, but it is worth noting if only as a bullet-point. Advocates of any issue, including peak oil use this tool of rhetoric as much as anybody, but they can also be on the receiving end also and should be able to recognize it. Just as safe sex is more acceptable to an individualistic society than abstinence, in the minds of the majority a carbon credit system is probably the condom equivalent that people will find more acceptable than curtailment of their desire to travel. After 2 or more generations the freedom to travel is now a deeply embedded freedom that will not be given away without a fight.

The trivial end of denial is an unconscious habit used to insulate sensitive personalities from all manner of unpleasant truths. Many of us practice self-deception whether in the form of false belief or false denial with such skill that we surprise ourselves when we come to understand what motives we have been operating under. The clever dark parts of our minds, the parts that arrange the stage scenery around our fragile vanities, utilize a number of devices from the property departments of our experience to ensure that the pretence is believable firstly and most importantly to ourselves and secondly to others.

More seriously though are circumstances where denial of serious issues places other people in jeopardy. A “she’ll be right” attitude to the maintenance of vital infrastructure is never going to come across well in an enquiry after something has gone tragically wrong. The words “duty of care” or “failure to perform” will be applied like branding irons to those who brushed issues aside casually or avoided proper engagement with them. In such situations, denial of an issue will have similar consequences as the failure of an antibody to recognize a foreign bacterium colonizing it.

And what about those responsible for governing a territory and organising its future development who overlook reasonably foreseeable issues ahead such as peak oil or climate change? What will they say when they are asked, as they surely shall be – “and what did you do about peak oil/climate change?” Will they run through a list of evasion, rationalization, minimization, or will they plump for a bald faced denial that they knew what was coming?

Many who have engaged with the information about Peak Oil and Climate Change are compelled to believe that these are the issues of the present time which will subordinate all other issues. Peak Oil and Climate Change is the double star with the gravity that makes all other concerns orbit around them. The duty of those who have been radicalized by the information is to become catalysts which radicalize others. Those who understand catalytic reactions in chemistry know that a true catalyst does not take part in the reaction itself – it is just a tool that “reduces the activation energy” required for a chemical reaction to take place. This is pictured as being a substance or a reagent that affects the geometry or electronic charge of the initial ingredients so that the reaction proceeds with reduced energy inputs. A true catalyst remains unchanged after the conversion and able to go on to catalyze others.

Advocates should bear this in mind lest they take on more than simply presenting the information and end up being burnt out. This is much easier said than done, but the ability to develop a thick skin in the face of denial is probably a peak oil survival skill all in itself. This does not mean being rude. That will help nobody - least of all oneself. What is needed is the respect of one’s audience and this must be earned. It does mean we need to remember that the issues we confront people with are deeply threatening, and our message must be delivered to maintain engagement. A certain amount of sharp (or blunt) denial responses is to be seen as par for the course, but we must sustain our campaign - and sustainability must start at home.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

REVIEW – NZ ENERGY STRATEGY TO 2050

The New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050, (NZES), published October, 2007 is part one of two government papers to provide guidance about New Zealand’s energy future. The first part “Powering Our Future” covers the over-arching issues and the policy direction with government initiatives set forth to drive the policy. The second part (not covered in this review) is an action plan aimed at those responsible for running households, businesses and industries.

Part One – Powering Our Future is a comprehensive assessment of the NZ energy landscape. From the outset it is abundantly clear that the NZ Govt is aware of the criticality of the energy flows necessary to maintain the economy and the social cohesion it provides. It is also aware of the affects that society has on the natural environment. It paints a picture of a diverse and interconnected set of energy industries in a world that is rapidly changing and a world that is pushing the limits of the underlying resources. Any strategy looking 40+ years into the future is ambitious particularly in the flux of our time in history. When that strategy attempts to pilot a path through the conflicts of economy and the environment that ambition is enormous.


A great deal of effort has gone into planning the strategy and the document has a consistency at macro and micro-levels. The policies are backed with plenty of diagrams, illustrations and textual information. The diagram of NZ’s energy flows on page 107 (inset) is a masterpiece of graphical representation. The tone is positive and with the evidence of the research on the page it creates a feeling of reassurance. For a lay-person such as myself, (Architect), the NZES required an investment of concentration and mental space in order to fully digest the complex subject of a nation’s energy future. The glossary of acronyms and definitions at the rear of the document was essential.

The agenda presented in the strategy is the paramount importance of living sustainably. As such there were no surprises and the directions advocated appear to be in the nation’s best interest. Some effort was devoted to prepare the public for the roll-out of potentially unpopular policies such as the (carbon) Emissions Trading Scheme and NZ’s energy obligations to off-shore entities such as OECD that contribute to NZ’s energy equation are mentioned. The difficulties that energy providers have had getting projects off the ground because of the Resource Management Act were also addressed.

NZES clearly and lucidly separates vision from action. Action is teased out under main headings of :

- Resilient low carbon transport

- Security of electricity supply

- Low emissions power and heat

- Using energy more efficiently

- Sustainable energy technologies and innovation

- Affordability and wellbeing

The strategy however, has an “Achilles Heel” in its benign evaluation of future oil supply. Whilst acknowledging the advent of “Peak Oil”, the NZES adopts a so-called “mainstream” view on the matter. The International Energy Agengy (IEA) projects that world demand for oil will rise to circa 117 million barrels per day by 2030. This projection has wide support, however the IEA’s projections of future supply have been highly contested by those studying the peak oil issue. Those critical of the EIA are senior analysts and geologists who have come from within the oil industry and have formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)[1]. The NZ Energy Strategy quotes IEA’s - World Energy Outlook 2006;

“the world’s proven reserves (including non-conventional oil) should be sufficient to meet demand to 2030” [2].

EIA’s own records of actual oil production in the period from 2005 to date shows the IEA supply projection to be greatly and increasingly wide of the mark. Not only is the wedge between demand and supply ever widening but it looks like a full blown delamination is happening, the consequences of which cannot be under-estimated.

One presumes that this critically important matter was carefully thrashed out in the offices of the MED prior to publication and that the final spin was adjusted for political reasons. In the currently optimistic economic environment it would be extremely difficult to come up with a publicly acceptable energy strategy based on the oil production peak that occurred May 2005, at 74.3 million barrels per day[3]. With every month that has passed since that date, it is becoming clearer that the actual supply trend is already downward. It is obvious that even without the political instability of OPEC countries in the Middle-East, real production is unlikely to ever exceed 90 million barrels per day let alone push through the 100 million barrels/day mark.[4]

An energy strategy based on the true trend-lines would be very different from the one published, and it would not create a feel-good factor. The Governors of New Zealand have therefore elected to post-pone the inevitable until circumstances make it obvious to the electorate that Draconian measures are what is actually needed. This will only result in reducing the time to prepare mitigation measures and make the affects more acute. In this the NZ government is no different to most Western governments which all founder on the shoals of a short term election cycle. The meta-problem of ever-increasing needs in an ever-depleting world, as illustrated by oil energy, will severely test the resilience of the Democratic process.

Meanwhile, the MED Discussion Paper: Options for Government Response to an Oil Supply Disruption has been quietly circulating since Sept 2006. This is a much more targeted document and does not try to set up a grand plan of managed actions to transition to a new sustainable economy. In my view a combination of both documents will form the strategy that will be adopted in the not too distant future.

Despite the crucial flaw discussed above the New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050 is still an important document for New Zealander’s to read. There is much to learn about the issues that are unfolding and there is plenty of valuable information that is not wrong. All New Zealanders need to see how their personal choices fit into a nation’s attempt to chart a course into a very uncertain future.



[1] Matthew Simmons (oil investment banker) is just one of many who have written extensively on the subject. A copy of a detailed analysis titled Another Nail in the Coffin (Nov 2007 ) leaves no doubt about the true state of world oil production.

[2] NZES - Box 7.1, p47

[3] This figure is for Crude Oil + Condensates.

[4] To put this into perspective, the most oil NZ has ever pumped is about one million barrels in one year (2006).

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Richard Heinberg Peak Oil Update

















Richard Heinberg
of ASPO and author of the Peak Oil Protocol gave a talk at Victoria University of Wellington, NZ on Thursday 11 Oct, 2007. Richard first outlined what Peak Oil is about, gave some up to date statistics and discussed some of the responses that are being taken in places around the world. The main points I gleaned from his talk are as follows:

1) Conventional Oil production peaked in 2005 at 74.2 million barrels/day.

2) All liquid fuels peaked in July 2006 at 85.5 million barrels/day.

3) The energy content of all fossil fuels will peak circa 2010.

4) The 200 year period of coal availability is seriously wrong. Coal production is expected to peak in 15 - 20 years.

5) A sudden switch to nuclear energy production will exhaust supplies of uranium within an even shorter time-frame.

6) The Oil Export Quandry will exacerbate fuel depletion as follows:-
  • Net oil exporting country becomes flush with money
  • A boom in the local economy causes internal demand to rise
  • This leads to a reduction in exportable fuel.
Net export availability of fuel is THE critical indicator to monitor.

7) Scarcity of fuel will be a bigger driver of society than fear of climate change, according to an almost buried US DOE report written in 2005.

8) Governments are not doing enough. Pressure MUST come from constituents.

9) Optimism is a deliberate attitude that must be adopted in the face of the uncertainties ahead.

10) Transition towns and sustainable communities are springing up in various places and enabling people to become optimistic about making changes that will be necessary.

Richard focussed on the positive aspects of culture change and carefully avoided exploring the gloomy mechanics of economic collapse and its inevitable conflicts. His talk was well received by the fairly full lecture theater.