The Coming Cultural Revolution

Global Emotional Index 2000 - 2010

2011-01-24T22:03:00.000+13:00

Here is my graph of how the Western world got to the end of 2011 and some thoughts about where things might be headed.

More on NZ's Changing Migration Trends

2009-09-01T08:01:00.003+12:00

Returning Kiwis Help Lift Hope for Economy
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/immigration/news/article.cfm?c_id=231&objectid=10585848

Departures to Australia Drop Off - Good article by Alex Tarrant
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/08/21/big-jump-in-net-migration-as-departures-to-australia-drop-off/

Home (NZ) is a Foreign Land
http://www.theaucklander.co.nz/local/news/home-is-a-foreign-land/3902929/

EmigrateNZ Forum - What do Kiwis who have been out of NZ for a while, make of returning home?
http://www.emigratenz.org/forum/archive/index.php/t-22912.html

Kiwi Returnees - Update

2009-07-23T08:16:00.003+12:00

There is now a constant stream of stories about:
a) Kiwi's returning to NZ
b) fewer kiwis departing and
c) people moving to NZ from other lands.

Here are some stats courtesy of Dompost via Stuff and presumably Statistics NZ:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2661087/Arrivals-up-as-exodus-slows

A continued influx of people is boosting New Zealand's population.

Permanent and long-term migration statistics for the year to June show a net gain of 12,500 people, more than double the year to June 2008.

Arrivals were up 4 per cent while departures were down 6 per cent, creating a large influx of new residents.

Net migration to Australia had decreased in the past five months, from the record exodus of December and January.

In the year to June, 42,200 people left for Australia while 13,600 went the other way, two-thirds of them returning Kiwis.

TD Securities senior strategist Annette Beacher said though the actual numbers were small, it was the net growth that counted.

"It doesn't matter if it is people arriving, or residents not leaving, the bottom line is increased population to spend, invest and shore up activity."

The three-month average for population growth was the highest it had been since late 2003, Ms Beacher said. "The combination of improved [housing] affordability and rising population, if it continues, are providing fodder for a solid housing recovery this time next year."

ASB economist Jane Turner said the rising net migration would help provide a floor on demand for housing and retail spending, two sectors at a particularly weak point. "We expect net migration to peak at around 25,000 people per annum over the next year."

The Reserve Bank would see migration as one positive factor for the economy and a potential source of inflationary pressure, she said.

Recessionary Crime

2009-07-15T22:17:00.004+12:00

Links reporting rising crime

Telegraph 19 July, 2009

A teenage robbery crime wave is sweeping Britain, with the number of young muggers increasing by more than three quarters in the last decade

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5796887/Teenage-robbery-crime-wave-sweeping-Britain.html

Kiwi Departees Slow - NZ Herald (21 May 2009)

2009-05-21T14:16:00.002+12:00

Kiwis seeking greener paddocks has slowed according to Stats NZ. See link at the bottom for source.
According to NZ Herald . . .

The net outflow to

Australia

was 32,000 in the April 2009 year, down from the record net outflows of 35,400 in both the December 2008 and January 2009 years.

Permanent and long-term arrivals exceeded departures by 400 in April, compared with a net outflow of 1,300 in April last year. The increase was mainly due to 1,600 fewer long term departures of New Zealand citizens.

New Zealand's annual net migration balance was a gain of 9,200 in the April 2009 year, up from 4,700 in the April 2008 year.

While the number of Kiwis leaving these shores for good has fallen, the number returning home to live has only increased slightly - with 24,500 in the April 2009 year, just above the annual average of 23,400 seen for the 1979-2008 December years.

"Arrivals of New Zealand citizens tend to show little variation year-to-year," said Statistics NZ.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10573661

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/document/pdf/internationaltravelandmigrationpdf.pdf

MEXICAN SWINE FEVER

2009-05-03T14:15:00.005+12:00

The fact that you are reading this is a confirmation that you have "Mexican Swine Fever". This is the companion disease that accompanies Mexican Swine Flu aka Influenza Type A (variant H1N1).

In contrast with Swine Flu which is primarily a viral infection of the respiratory system, Swine Fever is a disease of the mind activated by a complex signalling process, the main vector of which is the Main Stream Media. I hesitate to call it the main stream "news" media because the word "news" carries with it connotations of impartiality, accuracy and trustworthiness. As this could be debated let me just say that the media is simply a pipeline of content, rather like a water supply (or a sewer) some of which is good to receive, some of which is poisonous and some of which is just noise.

In the Chemistry lab a small inert chip of glass is often used to help solutions in test-tubes boil evenly. This chip provides an irregular surface for liquids to vapourize against and thus boil off without making a mess. The outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico is the bumping granule around which much activity is boiling - and most of what is given off is Swine Fever. The Fever has in turn raised the temperature of the environment and is concentrating attention away from the financial collapse, which must be a welcome relief to the banking industry.

The reason that this relatively small outbreak has generated such a lot of concern is simply that the test-tube in which the flu has been incubated (or liberated*) has been growing increasingly hotter, having been cooked under the sequential bunsen burners of SARS, Avian Flu and earlier, AIDS, Ebola etc.

It is too early to tell whether this is the "Big One" or whether this will simply be a trial run for the systems and procedures put in place in airports, hospitals and Pandemic Emergency Manuals around the world. Regardless of whether the Swine Flu is a real or a virtual emergency the seeds have been sown for a harvest at least of income via "Big Pharma", if not in a harvest of lives.

If feeling the affects of Swine Fever it might be a good time to check how well prepared you are for the real thing. Do you have stocks of the basic essentials - food, water and toilet paper.

* Dr Leonard Horowitz claims Mexican swine flu is not only a deliberately engineered disease but one which is race specific - see http://www.sott.net/articles/show/183179-Horowitz-Swine-Flu-Is-Genocide-For-Profit

KIWI RETURNEES

2009-04-25T17:25:00.010+12:00

Flocks of seagulls sitting on the rugby field is a classic storm-sign. What is happening when Kiwis return to "Godzone Country" in larger numbers than previously? Here's a collection of stories on this theme. The Cultural Revolution has definitely started.

Kiwis Decide Home's Best Source: The Press - 22 April, 2009

New Zealand

could be heading for a population blip as thousands of Kiwis stay home instead of trying their luck overseas. Net migration numbers arriving in New Zealand compared with those leaving last month was the highest for 2 1/2 years at 1720.

Migration won't affect housing market til 2010 Source: National Business Review – 22 April, 2009
“This economic cycle is also different. It’s a deep global downturn. New Zealand is suffering, but looks better than most, particularly those in the northern hemisphere. Hence, it is possible that migration will hold up better than it has in the past.”

Returning kiwis are eagerly looking for somewhere to rent Source: NZ Herald - 6 October, 2008
The article in today’s NZ Herald highlights an increase in enquiry from London based kiwis seeking employment opportunities in NZ as the credit crisis wreaks its toll on the Finance and Banking sector in the UK.

At Least 10,000 Kiwis Returning as Recession Sours OE Dreams Source: TVNZ – 17 March, 2009
More New Zealanders are turning their back on the great OE, as the tradition becomes one of the casualties of the recession. Up to 10,000 expatriates are expected to come home this year because they are struggling to find jobs and make ends meet overseas.

New Zealand Herald - 12 April, 2009
The local housing market is benefiting from tough economic conditions abroad, says John Wills of Custom Residential.

Questions to Kiwis Source - Chris Martenson Forums Hi all Kiwis! - Some questions I have regarding NZ and its situation in the coming crisis:

ChrisMartenson Forums
I was trying to start a discussion of this in another forum, but I'm eyeing NZ as an interesting place to run to. Why? Well, because you seem to have still certain advantages. Namely, NZ is far away from anywhere making it less likely to get attacked once things start to crash and secondly with a strong agriculture you'll be able to feed yourself even if cut off from the rest of the world. In terms of worst case scenario - total breakdown of the current system - those are really important advantages. Provided of course NZ society won't break down under strain these events will put on it. How do you think?

Move your Money Out Of America And Soon Source - Whiskey & Gunpowder
“It might sound counterintuitive after the sub-prime debacle, but real estate is a sound option for moving money outside of the United States; there are zero reporting requirements. It’s your business where you own property, and (so far) no one else’s. You can purchase property in a private way by setting up a corporate structure to hold the assets so that they’re not in your name (Panama is an excellent jurisdiction to set this up), and although there are many places with depressed real estate markets, there are also many with good growth potential: in Latin America, we would recommend Panama, Colombia, Uruguay, and Chile. In Europe: Slovakia, Albania, and Poland. In the rest of the world: Lebanon, Hainan Island (China), the Philippines, Cambodia, and New Zealand.

Time is of the essence – start looking for your safe haven now.”

A Presidential Energy Policy

2009-04-18T18:16:00.002+12:00

http://www.rubiconworks.com/announcement.html

Long awaited
Coming out 1 May, 2009

PIRATIZATION

2009-02-07T20:32:00.000+13:00

Catherine Austin-Fitts posted a penetrating article titled “Financial Coup d’Etat” about a time in 2001 when she attended a private investment conference in London. The stories that emerged at the conference made it apparent that the 1990’s de-regulation and privatization was nothing less than an international financial coup against nations including US itself. Catherine recalls that a relatively small group of Bankers, corporations and investors with their coterie of accountants and lawyers (Washington-Wall St partnership) presided over the destruction of many economies. She describes this “piracy”. . .

“a Washington-Wall Street partnership that had:

- Engineered a fraudulent housing and debt bubble;

- Illegally shifted vast amounts of capital out of the U.S.;

- Used “privatization” as a form or piracy - a pretext to move government assets to private investors at below-market prices and then shift private liabilities back to government at no cost to the private liability holder.”

The next phase of the piracy is probably the re-sale of essential power, energy and transportation infrastructure back to the states that sold them off after having substantially run down the asset. This “King’s ransom” will be the second bite, not of the cherry, but of the carotid artery on the other side of the throat. This all boils together in the catch-phrase – Privatize the profits and publicise the costs.

Piratze the assets then ransom them back.

WHAT CAN WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE?

2009-01-01T14:27:00.003+13:00

PART ONE – THE NATURAL

There are many question marks hanging over 2009. The end of 2008 had a significantly different tone from the beginning of the year. Warning lights came on with sudden increases in the values of commodities in particular oil and cereals. Then alarm bells started ringing as the American housing market was ripped open exposing a multi-headed cancer, with tentacles clearly originating in the organs of credit – the international industrial banking complex. While some of the largest and most trusted banking institutions were lying, not just on their backs in theatre attended by treasury surgeons, the sirens were crying from many corners, emergency meetings were convened and packets of blood were called for – truckloads. “What will we face in 2009?” has become a nagging question in many people’s minds. The question also begets another more abstract and more useful question – “What can we know about the future?”

The difference between the two questions is that the former invites an answer about how the external world will impact on us, whereas the latter shifts the focus onto a subject we all find interesting – ourselves. And we all have a stake in the future. The first thing to understand is that the future, like knowledge, is a concept. The words future and knowledge embody significant multi-layered meanings about our relationship with the world around us (and inside us) about which there is much common agreement. Whilst there may be many shades of meaning between individuals, there is a strong consensus about the central idea about what the future is and is not.

Knowledge and future are both high order ideas, that is, they are ideas which enclose and contain other ideas. The future is an aspect of a higher order idea again, the idea of time. On the one hand the future, like eternity, is a very long time, on the other it could be a brief moment. An astro-physicist and an atomic-particle physicist use different scales for measuring time’s multiple depths. The utility of higher order concepts such as knowledge and the future are their malleability. Like a piece of string (theory) the future can be expanded or contracted to whatever frame is most useful at the time. The mathematical association of time with energy and what it might mean about the nature of the cosmos is a pre-occupation for those with a mind for such things. For the majority of ordinary mortals however the first thing that we can know about an infinitely long period of time, to which we have very little access, is that the vast bulk of it does not concern us. Accepting our limitations, narrows our focus and our energies to the things that matter the most, which are generally prosaic. Where are we heading and are we heading in roughly the right direction? What is around the corner? Can we improve our situation?

From an ordinary human perspective the future is conjoined to the past through the present. The present like the future is an arbitrary elastic measure of time over which things can be known, but are not changing[i]. As soon as a change is detected, the present of a former moment, has become the past. The change has made it so. When things do not change, or we do not notice change, then our present moment expands and our experience of the passage of time may assume greater prominence – time drags and we get bored. Conversely if we notice many changes our focus shifts and we feel that time has sped up.

People’s experience of the past, present and future differs, depending on the individual’s ability to detect change. Those who cannot detect change, such as those in a coma, live in a continuous present which is expanded and a future which is collapsed. Those who don’t detect change, perhaps as a result of choice or circumstance are better off to the extent that their consciousness allows them. Their ability to respond to change is increased. A person, who is sensitive to changes around him is more aware still. If he has time and inclination he may discover patterns that change may indicate. He might then discern the significance of the change, consider the options and prepare a response. The response might be one which simply mitigates damage, or one which uses the change to uncover an opportunity.

Memory is critical to detection of change. If we have a failing memory our experience of change is impaired and our operations become enfeebled and clumsy. For memory to be accessed we also need time and space to remember. Without this our depth of focus is reduced to immediate concerns and we become blind to longer term concerns. We might have been too preoccupied getting the right meal in the dining carriage to realise that we have passed our stop.

We have heard it said that “if we could predict the future we wouldn’t be living in this house/doing this job, reading this blog, etc”. The assumption being that we would be able to utilize particular facts about the future, pick the right horse etc, buy and sell at the right time to our advantage. The deeper argument is that the future cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy to make a difference, therefore we needn’t bother trying. This is fool’s wisdom. In everyday life we plan our holidays, apportion budgets and embark on projects into varying depths of our futures, some of which proceed according to plan and others require adjustment along the way. There is actually plenty that we can know about the future. Firstly we can know that there will be a future - that Monday will follow Sunday. We can also know that the moon will be full on a certain date and with it a high tide. That the sea temperature is likely to be within a certain range, that it will be more or les likely to rain at that time of year. There is much that we can predict with reasonable accuracy that occurs on a seasonal or cyclical basis.

Related to cycles are patterns of growth and decline in human endeavour as well as in nature. There are also patterns of increasing order and disorder within societies and populations. Much has been written on “mega-trends”, those trends which drive change and are predictive of stresses/forces within society. Typically these include population demographics, resource availability, technological break-throughs, and changes in values as goods and materials become more abundant or scarce or as conditions change. These trends can be plotted and predicted also with varying accuracy by analysts who earn their living by doing so. This information is becoming more widely available and debated openly. One only has to pick a good stream and drink from it.

We also determine our future. By getting on a particular train we arrive at a particular destination. We construct our future by participating in it, by analyzing our own trend-lines, our aspirations and plotting our course. To what degree have we invested or acquiesced in our own future. Does what we invest in relate to what is happening in the world? Will we swim with the current, across it or against it? The choice is ours including the lazy choice to do nothing, in which case the future simply becomes a fabric with us in it. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the future will be constructed for us by those who have the means and determination to do so. Those who lead us and those who govern us.

Our leaders, those to whom we have delegated responsibility and power and resources to do their job of leading are given the means to affect change. They are also subject to pressures within their constituency and from other/external constituencies to implement particular changes. They are also bound by the rules of their office, which they might or might not adjust along the way. Some of our future is in the hands of those we want to lead us to the degree that we have collectively placed it. Who are our leaders and to what do they aspire? Who is seeking to influence them? How strongly they are positioned to resist or direct and how deftly can they actually lead in the thick of the always pressurised cooker of leadership? How healthy is the leadership framework, the social contract between leaders and followers?

Those who govern us, like those who lead, exercise power and authority. The subtle distinction is that one who governs exercises power they have acquired but not necessarily been given through a social contract. This might include tyrants such as Robert Mugabe, but it might also include directors of multi-national corporations who are equally untouchable. It might also include other more diffuse powers such as the media or influential lobby groups with the ability to catalyse and implement change against our wishes. Who are the Lords and Governors of our world and what means do they use to govern? What truths are being with-held and what justifications (half-truths/lies) are being presented and what and how much have we acquiesced? Such questions are difficult and ponderous but to avoid asking them would leave us with critical blindspots.

The broad shape of the future can be deduced to some degree if one has modelled the past sufficiently carefully and as long as massive unforeseeable events such as an asteroid colliding with the earth does not also collide with present trends. Such discontinuities as the asteroid, the alien invasion, accidental thermo-nuclear war or a pole flip, by their very nature cannot be known ahead of time. They can however be guessed at and assessed and managed as risks. The probabilities of them occurring are usually so remote that they are considered and put to one side. We cannot waste time and resources on every possibility otherwise our future will simply be a state of gibbering paranoia. We must accept that discontinuities will always be blank patches on the map.

Detecting change, memory, observation of seasonal/cyclical behaviour, pattern recognition, trend watching, understanding leaders, governors and most importantly ourselves can bring a lot of clues about where we are headed. These pieces of the puzzle can be marshalled and pieced together to sketch a map of the near future. This map can be adjusted as time marches on. Those with the best maps are usually those with the grey hairs of experience and the scars of past mistakes.

In Part Two the focus moves beyond the natural. What else might assist us in knowing about the future.

[i] A mathematicians concept of the present is unhelpful because it reduces the present to an infinitesimally small period of time, so small that in fact it cannot exist.

SYNCHRONOPTIC CHART

2008-12-17T16:13:00.004+13:00

I learnt a new word today courtesy of Wikipedia - Synchronoptic, the simultaneous charting of different information. Here is a chart which composites several strands all self explanatory.

Where these lines will go in 2009 is anybody's guess.

the private lives of mannequins go mostly ignored

2008-12-12T23:02:00.001+13:00

the private lives of mannequins go mostly ignored, originally uploaded by dietrich.

This shows the banality of Modern Art Galleries and the hapless behaviour of its audience in its pointless majesty. A picture like this is worth a thousand piles of bricks and a hundred and one installations. A most excellent observation of a feckless generation.

The banality of the gallery is just a shopfront for a greater cultural banality . Not only is the empress wearing no clothes who gives a sh*t?

Strategy for National Transition

2008-11-25T22:30:00.013+13:00

Big Question – How does Transition Towns NZ develop a strategy for National Transition?

When big picture questions arise in conversation as this one did with Colleague Laurence the other day I find it hard to resist their challenge.

This question is a tremendously broad canvas and begs several major assumptions:

it assumes that a strategy for national transition is desirable.
it assumes that a strategy for national transition is attainable.
it assumes that Transition Towns have more than two pennies worth to offer.
it assumes that a voluntary organisation with few paid staff can make a contribution to the enormous task of reorganisation of an entire nation that would in the normal course of events be the responsibility of a large well educated well funded public service.
it assumes that those in charge will actually be interested.

Assuming that the answer to the above is generally in the positive we then face the tricky task of defining terms so that the problem can be framed and measures set up so that we might know whether we are proceeding in roughly the right direction. If we can do this and satisfy ourselves that the underlying assumptions are broadly acceptable - then we might have an approach that we can tease out parameters and drill down to the sub-questions below. This approach could of course be caricatured as a classic left-brain, top-down, hierarchical-male strategy, which does not mean it is any better or worse than any other approach, it just is one approach and perhaps the most obvious.

Another approach is to imagine that the whole country has already made a transition to a lower energy future and to paint a picture of what it looks like and how the journey to it was made. This back-cast vision might be a fairly patchy rendering; some bits highly detailed and coloured, other bits barely sketched at all. Like painting a picture without any pencilled outlines this approach requires a good understanding of one’s subject, its structure, details and surface features for it to be more than a wishful fantasy. The more knowledge that can be brought to bear - other countries, towns or cities that have made significant shifts towards resilience, then the more the vision is a projection which is anchored with real world understanding.

A third option might be to develop a strategy by working in a painterly fashion perhaps starting with a splash of paint or a found object, perhaps an old factory or vacant lot and using it as the stimulus to build a picture of the future. A serendipitous “abstract for art sake” approach whilst unusual and strangerous could certainly liberate thinking and perhaps tumble out some good ideas that could not be generated any other way.

Prophetic visions have a long and credible history in many cultures which should not be over-looked. Whether prophetic insights are received as a result of spiritual inspiration or the neuro-chemistry of a sensitive individual, (or a combination of both), the visions of gifted prophets have provided guidance for communities struggling to travel from present certainties into uncertain futures. Although the format and content is a little different from a white discussion paper, the raw power of the spoken word can perhaps do immeasurably more than kilograms of carefully weighted discourse. If ever there was a time when so many on the planet face certain tribulation, it will be when oil production peaks and declines along with most every other resource. The need for outside help will become ever more apparent.

My favourite dessert is a sherry trifle – at least it will do for the moment. A combination of sponge, jelly, custard, whipped cream, slices of strawberries & peaches all laced liberally with a rich fortified wine. To see a beautifully formed trifle blended, chilled, set and decorated in its great crystal bowl is to see a vision indeed. Perhaps the best approach is to cook up solutions in every corner of the kitchen and bring them together for a grand tasting and debate. Following which we might (if we are not overfed) concoct a hearty vision of National Transition from some simple well blended ingredients.

Ladies and gentlemen – a penny for your thoughts please.

WHY DAIRY COWS MOO!

2008-08-11T18:01:00.003+12:00

The industrial dairy complex has leapt to the forefront of wealth transformation[i] in Godzone country[ii] and has received much criticism from environmentalists.

Such people see the affects of dairy farms as damaging our landscape. Whilst there is some truth to their argument, it is by no means the whole truth, for it is hard to enjoy the landscape if you are unemployed, and the development of the dairy sector is employing many people. Simply blaming the farmers for the affects of agricultural intensification overlooks the situation as one symptom of a greater disease.

At one level the dairy industry illustrates a parasitic relationship between farmers, cattle and the land. At another level it reflects a greater parasitism between the state-corp[iii], communities and the land. The dairy industry is a metaphor - for as any tourist will understand, cows are not the only creatures that can be milked. If we feel milked by a system, it is not so much the money that we feel being drained, but our very energy. The ensuing enfeeblement reduces our ability to think about the ever-changing present that bears down upon us, let alone ponder the future. Until we realise this, it is all too easy to inhabit that “clueless” existence that JH Kunstler refers to. Like placid bovines it is enough to trek from pasture to milking shed, from work-house to out-house and back each day.

To what extent have individuals, families and groups of people become cattle equivalents in a vast financial milking system? At what point does symbiosis graduate from benevolent parasitism into a malignant virus? Do we need to experience burnout before the penny drops that the energy required to service a consuming lifestyle exceeds our capacity to deliver it? Must we wait until we are indebted or worse - bankrupted? Once such insight percolates our consciousness and we gaze at the grass beyond, how long before we find that the path is impeded by invisible, electrified fences?

Constructed with the greatest care and deliberation, we occupy paddocks of conformity tailored to our human shape. We find ourselves fenced with barriers no less real than the galvanised railings of a rotary milking shed. If conformity to one’s peer group is the first fence to clear, the second is much higher and more impenetrable. This is the legal obligations that our society surrounds us with and in which we become enmeshed on many different fronts. It only seems fair that if we borrow money that the lender should receive a reward for the use of the funds which could have been put to another use. [A little bit of milk in exchange for grazing]. It only seems fair until there’s a drought and grass (and milk) are hard to produce and cannot be yielded in the agreed quantities. Money lenders don’t think like farmers, they don’t need to factor seasonal variations such as recessions into their repayment schedules; they can always recover their capital in kind. Even if required to write off colossal sounding sums in bad debts, the over-all picture is the greater concentration of cream in the separator.

What holds this high tensile system together is a bovine willingness to conform. This conformity like money and debt is legislated out of thin air for good and useful reasons. Like money and debt, conformity to Law is captured on wafer fine sheets of cellulose and inhabits the vacuum between ink and the concepts in our heads. Like the money industry, the conformance industry has secured its place in the courts of power. Like Siamese twins Money and Law are two sides of the same coin. One cannot exist without the other, they must both be accepted, they are both owed fealty. For the most part they are accepted unquestioningly, at least until we want to make any significant change to our material situation. For significant material change almost always results in the need to borrow finance over two decades to do it. Wisdom unfortunately doesn’t come until one loses something of value.

“Ah – you want a new house/ship/factory do you. Well – we have a deal for you! Do you want to re-locate or do you want to build?” At this point even the dumbest of us know that our aspirations are being handled with the delicacy of a cattle prodder. And so we proceed somewhat tremulously if it’s our first home along with a herd of others being shifted from an outer paddock to a holding pen. Our progress along the race of life is maintained at a steady speed by the barking of dogs, the crack of alkathene pipe on rump and the comforting throb of a distant milking shed - until we come to the stockyards. Here we are weighed and assessed by a succession of vetinarians, stock-agents and haulage workers to determine our value to others as an investment opportunity. If we make the grade and suffer no deformities such as a poor education or a criminal record we are drafted. “Do you have life insurance?”

Willingly and even gratefully we step into a new working life that a long and subtle process of indoctrination has prepared us for. It’s as exciting as taking a credit card for a walk in an electronics shop. Just who is taking who for a jog anyway? Did I mention artificial insemination, drenching, vision and values programmes and other forms of continuing professional development to keep us in line and on target? It’s only now in the short spaces of sentience between caffeine boosted periods of feverish workload that the fear starts to come up like a cold pale moonrise on a windy night. Between the shreds of cloud we start to see demons mocking us as we work our life away. If we have any insight - we shudder and groan.

The lowing of the workforce is initially tempered with prescriptions of alcohol, television, lotteries and sporting diversions. As time goes on it is followed by prozac generics and whatever spiritual disciplines we can lay our hands on to dampen the neuro-chemistry of despair without damaging production. However the milking shed is working hard in competition with others just like it. Competition leads to reduced margins which lead to cost cutting and deferred maintenance. Deferred maintenance inevitably leads to breakdowns and the milk cannot be harvested properly leading to losses of profit.

Eventually the farmer is bankrupted and if the cattle have a nice farmer who is interested in his animals’ welfare[iv] then they get sold to another farmer down the road or sent to the freezing works where they undergo sudden changes in body temperature and configuration. If the cows are unfortunate enough to have a farmer like Farmer Enron who cares little for his cattle, the cows will be left in their stalls to chafe at the railings and to savour the pain of debt in their bulging udders. This pain brings realisation and knowledge and soon the sound of mooing cattle can be heard all over the farm.

[i] Not wealth generation but transformation of environmental capital into financial capital.

[ii] Godzone = New Zealand

[iii] State-corp = Marriage of Government + Commerce (aka The System)

[iv] All farmers understand their dependence upon the health of their stock – but this is not really a story about farmers.

DEGREES OF DEPENDENCE - FOOD

2008-07-10T21:16:00.007+12:00

Getting food into ones body is an absorbing and time consuming process for most species. Man is no different. The process of acquiring, storing, preparing and eating food is considered in a step-wise fashion to locate the dependencies and the connections with lifestyle.

Here is a diagram setting out the degrees of food dependence that can be seen in many modern lifestyles. The colours refer to a "rough" chromatic scale where the warm colours represent high levels of dependence and the cool end represents high levels of self sufficiency. The diagram is not intended to precisely model every particular lifestyle but to organise a few archetypes on paper.

The spectrum we occupy are largely based on many unconscious choices. Knowing what options are available is the first step to thinking about where one is best positioned.

- Which slots best describe your food routines?
- Is it financially sustainable in the medium term?
- Will it be sustainable as the depletion of fossil fuels starts to enfeeble our industrial agricultural system?

The Affects of Peak Oil on Architecture

2008-06-29T14:10:00.005+12:00

The following is part of a talk given to Western Branch NZIA which met at Whanganui River Institute, 27 June 2008.

First Point - Architecture pre-existed the use of cheap fossil fuels, but it was a little different then.

Secondly – There are many definitions of an Architect, but one that is useful to the discussion about Peak Oil and resource scarcity is Architects as “concretisers of culture”. Just as bacteria are instrumental in turning carbon rich algal deposits into fossil fuels, Architects are instrumental in fossilising the agendas of those with resources at their disposal.

On the face of it, the advent of PO and reduced flows of energy unfortunately means that there will be fewer resources play with and to plan with. It is almost certain that the communities that Architects recently served will be going through a certain amount of upheaval, and as resources become more expensive new needs will emerge and old ones will disappear. It is highly probable that resources will be refocused on basic needs and agendas will be recast in the light of new and very pressing needs.

Not all of this will be a bad thing. Post-modern deconstruction will be seen as the last gasp of bankrupt ideologues who had no idea what times they were living in. Their architecture is destined to moulder and become an enigma for post-oil generations to marvel at. Decadent lifestyle pornography which architects have been totally complicit with over the past decade is likely to be greatly resented by those who cannot afford basic housing and for their owners will be expensive to maintain and heat. Many examples of what is currently called sustainable design will be seen to be sustainable in name only.

I suspect that there will be a re-evaluation of what architecture is actually about and that the future will have both opportunities and threats. To get a handle on this I have done some armchair analysis to examine the kinds of issues that are likely to raise their heads. I think there will be food for thought for councillors as well as architects.

So how will the advent of Peak Oil work through our world?

It will not be “Business as Usual”

The first obvious affect of reduced volumes/increased demands will be expensive energy. This has started happening. The second affect will be patchy supplies of fuel, which will be equivalent to a chronic heart failure. See below a chart of some of the trends that seem fairly predictable from this side of the decline, but there are sure to be many more:In addition to their knowledge of building design and procurement Architects have some significant skill-sets that are likely to prove valuable:

The ability to see/imagine a project at many different levels of scale consequtively over both space and time.

The ability to generate multiple solutions and to evaluate them for the best fit to the circumstances and situation.

The ability to act as a communication hub in which there are many different players all with interests at stake.

The ability to marry analytical and aesthetic judgements in the best interests of the project – The Art of Compromise.

The ability to think through and resolve complex staging issues arising from the implementation of implementing change on existing situations.

The ability to make decisions under conditions of stress and make fair-ish judgement calls in real time. – Also the ability to reverse those decisions when they are found to be wrong.

The ability to generally maintain the appearance of calm in the face of unbelievable bureaucratic frustration.

These skills are not acquired quickly or easily and are the intangible values upon which our reputation and utility rests. These skills are likely to be in demand during any period of significant change, and it will be interesting to see how well we are able to market our skills and perhaps diversify the role of Architect.

So what should Architects do? Some suggestions to start a discussion:

- design with the future in mind

- understand the times we are living in

- observe the forces in play

- re-think people’s actual needs

- re-think level’s of Architectural services

- advocate long term planning and declaim dubious projects including past ones

- acquire tools to demonstrate value for money

- re-think material use

- re-think design – Keep It Simple Sustainable & Sensible

- passive solutions better/cheaper than fallible active systems.

The great project over the next decades will be to help bring our lumbering hubristic civilization down to a survivable landing. This will involve different mindsets and value-sets from the ones that have held sway and become accustomed to working with. It will not be business as usual but business for the shrewdest, and all business involving resources will be carried out under the greatest scrutiny. The new frugality will focus on basic needs and will view as contemptible profligate waste the kind we currently experience as normal. The future is a mixed. There will be opportunities for both Chaos and Community. If we don’t lead or assist those who do lead by providing workable solutions, the forces of chaos will establish themselves by default, and the opportunities for community will dwindle.

Belief, Denial & Peak Oil

2008-04-10T17:48:00.005+12:00

We occupy a meme saturated world, much of it a result of the information explosion that accompanied the ignition of fossil fuels. Denial – the opposite of belief has become an important strategy in preserving a clear head from the pollution of toxic information swilling around us. We all operate within particular resources of time and space and must filter the information that comes our way. Much of this happens without any conscious effort and we navigate our days essentially guided by punishment and reward instincts which have stood us and our ancestors in good stead. We share this guidance system with many in the animal kingdom and for the most part it works exceptionally well. Humans however get a very wide spectrum of information directly from the world and some of this includes information received from others either directly or indirectly through one of the many media of information exchanges.

The ability to transmit information through abstract symbols, verbal and visual languages, and traditions has enabled humans to exploit the world around them and to become biologically successful. Language enabled groups of individuals to become organized to acquire and accumulate knowledge and to pass it on to others. This knowledge included basic facts about the world; [this is what barley looks like], as well as higher forms of knowledge - traditions and values; [this is when and where is it best to plant barley]. Belief in what one’s elders said about material resources had its obvious advantages. This was fine when the information matched the world and was sufficiently detailed to be useful.

However information is not always accurate, up to date or clearly passed on and can be corrupted accidentally or deliberately. Humans also discovered the advantages of with-holding or pitching information intended to deceive those they competed against. So the utility of information needed to be weighed against the disadvantages of mis-information or dis-information. The ability to discern the difference between beneficial, neutral and damaging information is therefore of critical importance for individuals and groups in a competition for resources.

Belief and denial are alternative conclusion points in the process of determining what course of action is best in the circumstances. An element of choice is involved in assessing information and feeling whether it fits with the world one has experienced. (If the information does fit one’s experience there is a greater chance that the information will be believed and where necessary acted upon, including the option to seek further information). Information that conflicts with experience will be pondered, and is more likely to be denied and put to one side. Such mis-matching information may even give cause for concern to the receiver’s relationship with the sender.

Over time we learn to trust certain sources of information more than others, [our best friend telling us we have bad breath is more troublesome than a snide adversary]. Some information is more important than others [you have received an email from realplayer vs. you have received an email from an old flame] and the knowledge is tagged with an emotional marker which indicates its significance. This tagging (or message amplification) has two sub-conscious effects: firstly it makes the event register on our memory; secondly it forces important information through the mental filters that guard our precious mental space – our consciousness. When the news is of life changing significance; [I’m sorry but you have cancer], it can set off a cascade of feelings that quickly overwhelm us. In this situation denial can be recruited as a strategy to mitigate the paralyzing affects of bad news. This is particularly so when the consequences of the bad news are at some point in the future, and we can go on living, avoiding an awful truth.

Denial takes a number of forms and expressions depending on the attitude of the person and the scariness of the issue that confronts them.

The most obvious denial devices are ridicule and “argumendum ad hominem” attacks on the messenger. The denier engages with the issue only long enough to determine that a response to shut down the issue is warranted. This could be driven by an exaggerated feeling of anger or fear and might include physical attack as well as emotional/verbal abuse. Ad hominem attacks need not be overt nor emotional and are highly effective when kept carefully neutral. [“Well they would say that, wouldn’t they!”], is essentially an attack on the messenger strongly implying bias. This shifts the focus from the point at issue to another which the denier is less threatened by. This tactic has been termed replacement, evasion or displacement.

A variant of ad hominem attack is to call into question the perspective of the messenger – in particular whether they are a pessimist or an optimist. Such labeling is a giveaway that an attempt is being made to avoid engagement with the issue. This can be taken a step further by the denier stating that he/she is an optimist, and the messenger by implication must therefore be a pessimist. This switches the focus from the point at issue to one which the denier is probably happier to focus on – himself. If the messenger buys into the counter-argument offered it leaves them struggling on vague subjective territory.

Similar appeals to bias of perspective have been used with devastating effect by those with politically correct agendas who attempt to silence debate on issues because those who oppose them may not be black/gay/female/disabled/whatever. Rhetoric such as “what could you possibly know about such and such because you’re a white anglo-saxon middle-class so and so” is an emotional blunderbuss that should be seen for the contemptible attitude it reveals and perhaps parodied to underline the bankruptcy of the argument.

Inappropriate analogies can be used to refute or accept issues. One classic analogy is that “truth is like an elephant in a darkened room. One person feels the trunk, another the ears, and they all come to different conclusions about what truth is.” It is amazing how many people actually swallow this analogy and fail to consider why truth might be more like a candle that illuminates - than an elephant, (that does what elephants do). Analogies are powerful levers in debates where an element of subjectivity is present, so must be treated with care.

Parallel with elephantine analogies are post-modern arguments which attempt to equate experience with reality. Po-mo “discourses” (as ideas are called in the rapidly fading philosophy of post-modernism), quickly lead one down “disrupted” unsustainable paths into nebulous pseudo-intellectualism. [What we know about the world is “mediated” through our senses, reality is just a construct of the mind, my reality is not your reality etc] ad nauseum. [There is no truth except for the truth that there is no truth, therefore we can all do whatever we want]. One logical extension of this is that Hitler was essentially a good man because he was true to himself. – Really?

Euphemistic language intended to minimize the affects of an issue is another form of denial. Describing civilians killed by bombs as collateral damage, or an aborted foetus as a product of conception are two that readily come to mind. We are deluged by such language whose primary purpose is to frame debates so that a particular mindset is adopted. The framing of issues is a powerful tool of propaganda that is beyond the scope of this short essay, but it is worth noting if only as a bullet-point. Advocates of any issue, including peak oil use this tool of rhetoric as much as anybody, but they can also be on the receiving end also and should be able to recognize it. Just as safe sex is more acceptable to an individualistic society than abstinence, in the minds of the majority a carbon credit system is probably the condom equivalent that people will find more acceptable than curtailment of their desire to travel. After 2 or more generations the freedom to travel is now a deeply embedded freedom that will not be given away without a fight.

The trivial end of denial is an unconscious habit used to insulate sensitive personalities from all manner of unpleasant truths. Many of us practice self-deception whether in the form of false belief or false denial with such skill that we surprise ourselves when we come to understand what motives we have been operating under. The clever dark parts of our minds, the parts that arrange the stage scenery around our fragile vanities, utilize a number of devices from the property departments of our experience to ensure that the pretence is believable firstly and most importantly to ourselves and secondly to others.

More seriously though are circumstances where denial of serious issues places other people in jeopardy. A “she’ll be right” attitude to the maintenance of vital infrastructure is never going to come across well in an enquiry after something has gone tragically wrong. The words “duty of care” or “failure to perform” will be applied like branding irons to those who brushed issues aside casually or avoided proper engagement with them. In such situations, denial of an issue will have similar consequences as the failure of an antibody to recognize a foreign bacterium colonizing it.

And what about those responsible for governing a territory and organising its future development who overlook reasonably foreseeable issues ahead such as peak oil or climate change? What will they say when they are asked, as they surely shall be – “and what did you do about peak oil/climate change?” Will they run through a list of evasion, rationalization, minimization, or will they plump for a bald faced denial that they knew what was coming?

Many who have engaged with the information about Peak Oil and Climate Change are compelled to believe that these are the issues of the present time which will subordinate all other issues. Peak Oil and Climate Change is the double star with the gravity that makes all other concerns orbit around them. The duty of those who have been radicalized by the information is to become catalysts which radicalize others. Those who understand catalytic reactions in chemistry know that a true catalyst does not take part in the reaction itself – it is just a tool that “reduces the activation energy” required for a chemical reaction to take place. This is pictured as being a substance or a reagent that affects the geometry or electronic charge of the initial ingredients so that the reaction proceeds with reduced energy inputs. A true catalyst remains unchanged after the conversion and able to go on to catalyze others.

Advocates should bear this in mind lest they take on more than simply presenting the information and end up being burnt out. This is much easier said than done, but the ability to develop a thick skin in the face of denial is probably a peak oil survival skill all in itself. This does not mean being rude. That will help nobody - least of all oneself. What is needed is the respect of one’s audience and this must be earned. It does mean we need to remember that the issues we confront people with are deeply threatening, and our message must be delivered to maintain engagement. A certain amount of sharp (or blunt) denial responses is to be seen as par for the course, but we must sustain our campaign - and sustainability must start at home.

36 States of the Nation - March 2008

2008-04-07T20:03:00.003+12:00

Here is my view of the state of NZ to end March 2008. Very little change evident, but it looks like the drought is easing off most of the country.

Here is my view of the state of NZ to end March 2008. Very little change evident, but it looks like the drought is easing off most of the country.

Can You Survive On $20NZD Per Week?

2008-03-31T20:13:00.006+13:00

Here is the first of my case studies of people, their gardens and their dependence on food procurement systems. I have decided to adopt a one page format and focus on the main issues that the particular case illustrates.

In this study Jeremy has taken a rather frugal approach as you can read in this.

CHROMATIC SCALING - 1

2008-03-22T09:08:00.002+13:00

The words - meltdown, collapse, tsunami, bubble burst, train wreck have appeared in news items across the world in connection with financial markets.

Those who don't live in a fabricated reality of denial understand that systems that we depend on are not only suffering stress, but are being deformed. What follows is an essay on the subject of system collapse and the ways we might be able to get a rough fix on the state of things. This is presented in 7 pages.

CHROMATIC SCALING - 2

2008-03-22T09:07:00.002+13:00

CHROMATIC SCALING - 3

2008-03-22T09:06:00.002+13:00

CHROMATIC SCALING - 4

2008-03-22T09:05:00.002+13:00

CHROMATIC SCALING - 5

2008-03-22T09:04:00.002+13:00

CHROMATIC SCALING - 6

2008-03-22T08:59:00.002+13:00

CHROMATIC SCALING - 7

2008-03-22T08:55:00.005+13:00

An example of a Chromatic Scale below:
http://comingculturalrevolution.blogspot.com/2008/02/state-of-nz-february.html

This will be updated over the coming months.

The Coming Cultural Revolution

2008-03-14T08:14:00.000+13:00

For those interested in the stream of ideas generated by the prospect of a resource depleted future, I have created a blog called "The Coming Cultural Revolution".

I hope to explore the following:

- Lifestyle Trends
- Peak Oil
- Transition Towns
- Permaculture
- Energy use
- Environmentally Sustainable Design
- Sustainable Faith

Xxancroft blog will remain as a general posting point

BUSINESS AS USUAL

2008-03-01T13:59:00.004+13:00

The phrase "business as usual" is often invoked by those with vested interests who stand to lose a service, patronage or facility. The phrase is intended to calm the worries of those who see difficulties ahead. "Business as usual" is often a give away that it is anything but as usual. As well as being a give away the phrase is an unintentional antagonym - a phrase that means the opposite of what it says.

Here is the main entrance to a supermarket undergoing re-modelling. Each sign bears the slogan "Business as usual" to remind shoppers that they can still carry out shopping. Supermarkets are loathe to shut down for building alterations because they risk losing customers to other stores. Building alterations are anything but business as usual for the store managers but with careful planning it is often found that trading actually increases during alteration work.

Alterations in continuously occupied public spaces are also a major head-ache for builders who must take responsibility for the health & safety of members of the public. For builders this means managing work during night periods, erecting safety barriers and creating the endless paper-trails that demonstrate the processes put in place.

36 Profile States of the Nation

2008-02-25T21:29:00.002+13:00

STATE OF NZ FEBRUARY

2008-02-24T22:32:00.002+13:00

36 States of the Nation

2008-02-24T15:22:00.004+13:00

The Great Cultural Revolution will be a life changing era to all who live through it, and its affects cannot be under-estimated.

The changes that are likely to happen will also trigger bitter reactions from the general public - a public who are ill-informed of the bigger picture and the inevitability of the events that will be precipitated. It is certain that the vast majority will be unprepared and will look for simple solutions in order to maintain the status quo. These solutions are likely to be counter-productive and potentially as damaging as the changes. Accompanying the reactions of those who seek to grasp that which cannot cannot be held on to, will be a profound shock of such depth that it will dissipate any remaining mental energies to reduce the daily impacts of change.

In order to counter these two fatal responses people need to be able to see where "things are at" and where "things are headed". This at least may facilitate some life saving abstract thinking which might work itself out in sound decision making.

I propose to track the status of some 36 aspects of national life under the following six headings:

- Environmental Wealth
- Economic Health
- Social Cohesion
- International Relations
- Cultural Vitality
- Spiritual Integrity

This will be done with the crude but highly evolved (or beautifully designed) metric of subjectivity. The results will be published monthly and the status of each aspect will be shown as a colour from a "Chromatic scale". - This all sounds a lot more complicated than it is.

Each of the six headings will have six features critical to the common wealth of the nation. The list is an educated guess at what is important and is intended to capture the broad sweep of national health and activity. Because this is a work in progress some aspects may be replaced with others that are deemed more appropriate.

The list of Headings and aspects follows:

ENVIRONMENTAL WEALTH
- Geological stability
- Meteorological Stability
- Natural asset stocks
- Bio-diversity
- Bio-hazards
- Ability to manage waste

ECONOMIC HEALTH
- Essential services (power/water etc)
- Inflation
- Concentration of wealth
- Paid employment
- Living within means
- Balance of trade

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
- Continuity of oil supply
- Access to markets
- War and peace
- Continuity of communications
- International reputation
- Ability to service treaties

SOCIAL COHESION
- Ability to govern
- Stratification in society
- Law and order
- Crime and decency
- Family life
- Individual rights

CULTURAL VITALITY
- Health and fitness
- Ability to reason
- Education system
- Health system
- Research and development
- Lucidity of expression

SPIRITUAL INTEGRITY
- Lordship of Christ
- Focus of belief
- Unity of believers
- Principalities and powers
- Manifestations of integrity
- Persecution

This list could be longer or shorter and six sets of six is somewhat arbitrary. There is no defining way to model the life of humans in society. If it is found to be useful all very well. If not there are plenty of other blogs to choose from - but time is shor . . .

REVIEW – NZ ENERGY STRATEGY TO 2050

2008-01-10T15:10:00.000+13:00

The New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050, (NZES), published October, 2007 is part one of two government papers to provide guidance about New Zealand’s energy future. The first part “Powering Our Future” covers the over-arching issues and the policy direction with government initiatives set forth to drive the policy. The second part (not covered in this review) is an action plan aimed at those responsible for running households, businesses and industries.

Part One – Powering Our Future is a comprehensive assessment of the NZ energy landscape. From the outset it is abundantly clear that the NZ Govt is aware of the criticality of the energy flows necessary to maintain the economy and the social cohesion it provides. It is also aware of the affects that society has on the natural environment. It paints a picture of a diverse and interconnected set of energy industries in a world that is rapidly changing and a world that is pushing the limits of the underlying resources. Any strategy looking 40+ years into the future is ambitious particularly in the flux of our time in history. When that strategy attempts to pilot a path through the conflicts of economy and the environment that ambition is enormous.

A great deal of effort has gone into planning the strategy and the document has a consistency at macro and micro-levels. The policies are backed with plenty of diagrams, illustrations and textual information. The diagram of NZ’s energy flows on page 107 (inset) is a masterpiece of graphical representation. The tone is positive and with the evidence of the research on the page it creates a feeling of reassurance. For a lay-person such as myself, (Architect), the NZES required an investment of concentration and mental space in order to fully digest the complex subject of a nation’s energy future. The glossary of acronyms and definitions at the rear of the document was essential.

The agenda presented in the strategy is the paramount importance of living sustainably. As such there were no surprises and the directions advocated appear to be in the nation’s best interest. Some effort was devoted to prepare the public for the roll-out of potentially unpopular policies such as the (carbon) Emissions Trading Scheme and NZ’s energy obligations to off-shore entities such as OECD that contribute to NZ’s energy equation are mentioned. The difficulties that energy providers have had getting projects off the ground because of the Resource Management Act were also addressed.

NZES clearly and lucidly separates vision from action. Action is teased out under main headings of :

- Resilient low carbon transport

- Security of electricity supply

- Low emissions power and heat

- Using energy more efficiently

- Sustainable energy technologies and innovation

- Affordability and wellbeing

The strategy however, has an “Achilles Heel” in its benign evaluation of future oil supply. Whilst acknowledging the advent of “Peak Oil”, the NZES adopts a so-called “mainstream” view on the matter. The International Energy Agengy (IEA) projects that world demand for oil will rise to circa 117 million barrels per day by 2030. This projection has wide support, however the IEA’s projections of future supply have been highly contested by those studying the peak oil issue. Those critical of the EIA are senior analysts and geologists who have come from within the oil industry and have formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)[1]. The NZ Energy Strategy quotes IEA’s - World Energy Outlook 2006;

“the world’s proven reserves (including non-conventional oil) should be sufficient to meet demand to 2030” [2].

EIA’s own records of actual oil production in the period from 2005 to date shows the IEA supply projection to be greatly and increasingly wide of the mark. Not only is the wedge between demand and supply ever widening but it looks like a full blown delamination is happening, the consequences of which cannot be under-estimated.

One presumes that this critically important matter was carefully thrashed out in the offices of the MED prior to publication and that the final spin was adjusted for political reasons. In the currently optimistic economic environment it would be extremely difficult to come up with a publicly acceptable energy strategy based on the oil production peak that occurred May 2005, at 74.3 million barrels per day[3]. With every month that has passed since that date, it is becoming clearer that the actual supply trend is already downward. It is obvious that even without the political instability of OPEC countries in the Middle-East, real production is unlikely to ever exceed 90 million barrels per day let alone push through the 100 million barrels/day mark.[4]

An energy strategy based on the true trend-lines would be very different from the one published, and it would not create a feel-good factor. The Governors of New Zealand have therefore elected to post-pone the inevitable until circumstances make it obvious to the electorate that Draconian measures are what is actually needed. This will only result in reducing the time to prepare mitigation measures and make the affects more acute. In this the NZ government is no different to most Western governments which all founder on the shoals of a short term election cycle. The meta-problem of ever-increasing needs in an ever-depleting world, as illustrated by oil energy, will severely test the resilience of the Democratic process.

Meanwhile, the MED Discussion Paper: Options for Government Response to an Oil Supply Disruption has been quietly circulating since Sept 2006. This is a much more targeted document and does not try to set up a grand plan of managed actions to transition to a new sustainable economy. In my view a combination of both documents will form the strategy that will be adopted in the not too distant future.

Despite the crucial flaw discussed above the New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050 is still an important document for New Zealander’s to read. There is much to learn about the issues that are unfolding and there is plenty of valuable information that is not wrong. All New Zealanders need to see how their personal choices fit into a nation’s attempt to chart a course into a very uncertain future.

[1] Matthew Simmons (oil investment banker) is just one of many who have written extensively on the subject. A copy of a detailed analysis titled Another Nail in the Coffin (Nov 2007 ) leaves no doubt about the true state of world oil production.

[2] NZES - Box 7.1, p47

[3] This figure is for Crude Oil + Condensates.

[4] To put this into perspective, the most oil NZ has ever pumped is about one million barrels in one year (2006).

MUSKETS SPADES & BLANKETS

2008-01-08T21:50:00.000+13:00

Not so long ago a museum installed an exhibit comprising a topographical map of a large coloured area that had been sold by its original Maori owners to European settlers. Alongside the map was a small collection of spades, blankets and a musket, which formed the exchange. The commentary and presentation was a fairly overt exercise in propagating the view that the original owners had been swindled by the new arrivals. Such post-modern approaches to history are nothing new, and despite the lack of objectivity the example was worthy of further consideration.

Why did Maori of the 1840’s trade so much land and hard won commodities such as flax fibre, timber and kumara for a single musket, a few spades and some blankets?

The musket projected shot (and power) and with it – respect.

The spade provided leverage of the soil – food

The blankets insulated them from the cold – health

Food, respect and health are vital to any community and are essential for harmony. The lack of any of these creates conditions of dis-comfort and dis-harmony, and therefore conflict. Thus the acquisition of muskets, blankets and spades was one way in which Maori attempted to increase their well-being and security in the land in which they lived.

There is of course a lot more to the story than that, but the main point I wish to draw out has got nothing to do with moralising about the fairness of the transactions. It is simply to see that at the time of the transaction, the decisions were made with a certain amount of pragmatism in achieving an immediate outcome, and perhaps less thought about the cumulative or later affects of such trade.

What we can learn from this is that values change as a result of a shift in the underlying conditions. In 2008 a single acre of rural land could be traded for many guns, spades and blankets. Perhaps just a few acres would be able to equip a small army with guns, spades and blankets. [Once an army was brought into being then the conditions affecting the locality would change again – for a time].

How our own generation will be judged by those of the future with their different value-sets will depend on the conditions and circumstances they find themselves in and the perspective that results and the degree to which knowledge is transmitted. Will we be a parable, a legend or an enigma? Will there be museums to show how our generation traded its present abundance for another generation’s destitution. Just how will the curator’s of the future present this story?

HAT WEARING AND HEDONISM

2007-11-20T22:44:00.000+13:00

Those with an interest in photographic history will know that hat wearing as a dominant feature of social scenes faded from view some time in the 1960’s. With that shift in fashion, once essential items such as hat stands, hat hooks and hat racks required less consideration for architects and builders, than toilet roll holders and thermostat control units currently do. Prior to the 1960’s, gatherings of men (particularly outdoors) could often be glimpsed through fields of Panamas, Fedoras and Straw boaters. One of the striking observations is the uniformity of hat styles that can be seen in photos of such gatherings.

Women of course had the luxury of expending small fortunes on these identity forming (or was it concealing?) garments and social hat wearing is now generally reduced to casual wear for protection from the sun or when one really wants to be noticed at the races. The last vestiges of indoor hat wearing has been conserved by religious groups often in out of the way places with little pressure to change. The spine of fundamentalism resident in such sects as The Salvation Army, the Brethren and The Taliban has given these hats, heads to sit upon and tresses to pin them through, as a counter-measure to the winds of “bare-headonism” that have blown and gusted for nigh on half a century. Hat wearing at the beginning of the 21st century is chiefly a matter for firemen, construction workers, farmers, bishops and monarchs who need either protection from falling objects including ultra-violet light, or who have need to project their badges of office to the world at large. Hats are also adopted by those of both sexes who’s hair has fallen off their heads through disease or sheer forgetfulness. But why did hats get blown off heads in the period when Dylan was singing ‘How many times can a man turn his head”?

The answer to that question is of course blowing in the wind, and Dylan’s generation expressed it perfectly when they let the hair on their heads grow longer and stronger to the point that hats popped off with every breeze. In fact it was fashions of hair that put the boot into the statistics of unemployed hat-makers, and underpinning this trend, like all trends, there were reasons why hair grew and hats flew. During this period to “let ones hair down” became something of a cliché expressing antipathy towards ones parents, and more particularly against the oppressive values that shoe-horned the previous generation through war and austerity. With peace handed to them on a gold edged plate, the post-war generation thanked those who gave this gift, with all the petulance of a pampered adolescent. Personally I blame the parents – but what did they do wrong?

I preface the answer by mentioning that in the circumstances we would do no better, and probably much worse – the circumstances being huge relief that the war was over, that the horrors of death and destruction had had their season and the discipline adhering all levels of society was no longer essential to prevent collapse of that society. This has been commented upon by many examining the fashion explosion of the 60’s and the reasons that the value sets of the baby boomer progeny were so different from their parents. An immediate consequence of the post-war shift in values was a relaxation of the demands of authority over the individual, and the boomers were able to inhale deeply of the oxygen of freedom and self-expression absolutely denied their parents by circumstance. Thus was the teenager born to the sounds of Elvis and others in the delivery room of the 50’s.

Concurrent with this freedom, the material benefits of wartime research were re-mobilised to service the general public (instead of destroying it), and luxuries such as indoor sanitation, better housing, personal mobility and increased leisure became part of the post-war largess. These technologies attended a brave new world in which science was king, engineering was admiral and capitalism was Marshall in the field. The new technologies required energy to function and resources were both abundant and cheap, permitting droves of manual labourers to leave their fields of toil in the country and enter factories of production in growing cities. Hot water was plumbed into every house and people washed more often including their heads - and even in winter.

Hats which had previously had the multiple functions of protecting heads, projecting identity, and adorning or concealing the state of their wearers’ heads and hair became generally superfluous (to the detriment of bald people) and wearing hair longer and more facially visible was a natural reaction against the cult of disciplinarianism deeply ingrained during the war years. The freedom from authority, to see and to be seen was like a draught of fresh air on the scalp of the newly bare-headed and so it has generally persisted with few exceptions, those who don’t want to be recognized such as secret agents and gangland hoodies being a case in point. Those people in third world countries who trudge daily through rice paddies in all weathers of course have yet to make the transition to bare-headonism and it is likely that they never will.

What is more likely is that we, the bare-heads, will gradually re-adopt hats as an essential accoutrement, as our circumstances slide away from the prosperity and self-confidence of the post war era. We will probably find that hats are an affordable practical response to the twin challenges of climate change and fossil fuel depletion. Hot water use is likely to decrease in direct proportion to the cost of heating, making us all smellier and unkempt. Air-conditioning usage will go the same way and we will learn to live with open windows and if we can afford them, fly-screens. Personal mobility will decrease and we will re-learn the subtle arts of crowding onto public transport and losing our personal space and identities as we merge with the hundreds of armpits and sweltering heads also on board.

For the above reasons we can expect to see hats make a come-back -and probably re-introduced with retro-hype and eco-marketing. And as we don our new found head-gear with our reduced identities and smart new conformities, some may even draw strength together in religious communities. Faith will once again become the asset it always was. Even so the rejoinder to Dylan’s song will still be able to be heard wafting gently in the wind.

Richard Heinberg Peak Oil Update

2007-10-14T13:39:00.000+13:00

Richard Heinberg of ASPO and author of the Peak Oil Protocol gave a talk at Victoria University of Wellington, NZ on Thursday 11 Oct, 2007. Richard first outlined what Peak Oil is about, gave some up to date statistics and discussed some of the responses that are being taken in places around the world. The main points I gleaned from his talk are as follows:

1) Conventional Oil production peaked in 2005 at 74.2 million barrels/day.

2) All liquid fuels peaked in July 2006 at 85.5 million barrels/day.

3) The energy content of all fossil fuels will peak circa 2010.

4) The 200 year period of coal availability is seriously wrong. Coal production is expected to peak in 15 - 20 years.

5) A sudden switch to nuclear energy production will exhaust supplies of uranium within an even shorter time-frame.

6) The Oil Export Quandry will exacerbate fuel depletion as follows:-

Net oil exporting country becomes flush with money

A boom in the local economy causes internal demand to rise

This leads to a reduction in exportable fuel.

Net export availability of fuel is THE critical indicator to monitor.

7) Scarcity of fuel will be a bigger driver of society than fear of climate change, according to an almost buried US DOE report written in 2005.

8) Governments are not doing enough. Pressure MUST come from constituents.

9) Optimism is a deliberate attitude that must be adopted in the face of the uncertainties ahead.

10) Transition towns and sustainable communities are springing up in various places and enabling people to become optimistic about making changes that will be necessary.

Richard focussed on the positive aspects of culture change and carefully avoided exploring the gloomy mechanics of economic collapse and its inevitable conflicts. His talk was well received by the fairly full lecture theater.

Lowland Forest Remnant

2006-09-04T20:55:00.000+12:00

A couple of kliks South of Barrytown
January afternoon summer light